3rd Bay of Fundy Science Workshop
Understanding Change in the Bay of Fundy Ecosystem
Introduction
Opening Remarks
Understanding Change in the Bay of Fundy Ecosystem
OPENING REMARKS Jeff Ollerhead, Mount Allison University
The third Bay of Fundy Science Workshop was opened by Jeff Ollerhead, the meeting Chair, on April 22, 1999 at Mount Allison University. After offering greetings on behalf of the Bay of Fundy Ecosystem Partnership (BoFEP), the workshop organizing committee and Mount Allison University, he attempted to set the tone for the workshop by suggesting that the goal for the meeting was to consider a multitude of facets related to understanding change in the Bay of Fundy ecosystem. He proposed that key questions for the workshop be: how can we recognize change, what tools are needed to monitor change, and most importantly, how should we respond to change?
He outlined the plan for the three day meeting and briefly described the scheduled paper and poster sessions, the theme of the public lecture by author Harry Thurston, and the nature of the planned panel and group discussions. He encouraged people to attend the informal presentations by members of several non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and to stay for the BoFEP general meeting on Saturday, April 24. He reminded people that the workshop was their opportunity to raise questions and explore the issues and concerns they saw as relevant to the meeting theme. Peter Wells of Environment Canada was then invited to present a short paper on the nature of change to get the workshop underway.
UNDERSTANDING
CHANGE IN THE BAY OF FUNDY ECOSYSTEM Peter Wells, Environment Canada
Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Conservation Branch
Environment Canada, Dartmouth NS B2Y 2N6
Abstract
This paper explores several questions related to understanding ecological change in the Bay of Fundy. Some challenges are noted for individuals, groups and institutions interested in and responsible for monitoring change in the Bay, a critical activity for ensuring long-term sustainability of its ecology, habitats and living resources.
Introduction
Several questions can be considered pertaining to the theme - "understanding change in the Bay of Fundy ecosystem" – at the outset of the workshop. They are intended to set the context for the talks and discussions that follow. The questions are:
How do we define change and ecological change?
Why study change in the Bay of Fundy?
How do we measure change?
What is the evidence of natural change occurring in the Bay of Fundy?
What is the evidence of change in the Bay attributed to human activities?
Can the methods of detecting and interpreting change(s) be improved?
What challenges face us in our quest to understand change in a complex marine ecosystem -
the Bay of Fundy?
These are suitable questions for initiating critical thinking about a highly complex topic. The challenge is to reliably distinguish natural change from human-induced change. Some of the latter could then be ameliorated if deemed socially and environmentally "important" (e.g. impacts of barriers on tidal rivers, loss of northern right whales, continued atmospheric inputs of mercury, pulp mill pollution, and others below).
How do we define change and ecological change?
The dictionary definition of change is: "making or becoming different; substitution of one for another, variety" (Sykes 1976). Change differs from "effects" or "impacts", as the latter denote an association between the cause(s) and the change. Change alone does not assume any understanding or knowledge of the causative factor(s). Change can be biological/ecological (the obvious emphasis of this meeting) and also social (e.g. economic, political, demographic); these are often linked. Ecological change has occurred when there is a significant alteration in the structure (the physical components) and/or function (energy flow between trophic components) of an ecosystem. It may or may not be irreversible. Much study is occurring now of ecosystems such as tropical rain forests, coral reefs (see Sapp 1999) and temperate coastal ecosystems to determine just when a system has been irrevocably changed. This research has produced some startling results. Some ecological changes are abrupt and one-way, i.e. the system will not return to the previous state (Rapport and Whitford 1999), such as may be the case with several Canadian fisheries stocks (e.g. northern cod, Atlantic salmon, some species of Pacific salmon). Usually, ecological change starts gradually and covers a gradient – there is minimum change (e.g. eutrophication – occurring gradually, reversible after the nutrients have been reduced, but not necessarily to the same biodiversity) to maximum change (e.g. loss of one or more species and significant changes in trophic structure – probably irreversible (Nettleship, pers. comm.)). Our concern, expressed as a working hypothesis, is that both types of change – minimum and reversible and maximal (often abrupt) and irreversible, are occurring locally or broadly in the Bay of Fundy, and even interacting where they co-occur, i.e. cumulative change occurs.
Why study change in the Bay of Fundy?
The Bay of Fundy is a north temperate, macrotidal embayment (Longhurst 1998) and the northeastern extension of the Gulf of Maine. It is a highly valued marine ecosystem, utilized by humans and wildlife (the term used in its broadest sense) for millennia. At the present time (circa 1990's), geological and biological events thought to be unusual are occurring in and around the Bay. These events are not fully understood. They include compositional changes in some mud flats, crustacean (amphipod) population fluctuations on the mudflats of the upper Bay, seabird "disappearances" in the outer Bay, and greatly diminished and threatened fisheries species (dealt with in greater detail below and in the individual papers). Many people around the Bay are concerned about these events and feel that the natural and anthropogenic change(s) and their possible interactions, should be studied and understood. This may indeed be possible. The Bay of Fundy is data and information rich due to the considerable research conducted over the past 100 years (for example, Johnstone 1977, Gordon and Dadswell 1984, Plant 1985, Percy et al. 1997), and several research laboratories and groups exist on both sides, from St. Andrews to Digby. Some research continues on parts of the Bay, especially focusing on aquaculture, fisheries for traditional and "underutilized species", effects of barriers on rivers and tidal rivers, and the ecology of the benthos and migratory wildlife. Considerable baseline data are available for a host of variables (from salinity and sea surface temperatures, to contaminants and distribution of algal, invertebrate and fish species). Hence the Bay of Fundy offers many opportunities for systematically studying and documenting change in a complex marine ecosystem, using modern techniques, and for making attempts to assess the Bay's "ecosystem health" from a scientific perspective. Understanding how the ecosystem is changing and conducting periodic assessments of the whole system should assist our institutions (in the general sense) in choosing appropriate conservation and protection steps for the future.
How do we measure change?
Many scientifically-based observations are needed over time to build the case that a particular type of ecological change has occurred and to quantify the nature and direction of the change. Pivotal to detecting change is having the appropriate techniques and extensive knowledge of the previous "state" of the component of the ecosystem under study. Basic ecological concepts, some of them quite difficult to master, should be understood and applied. These include variability, stability, complexity, complex adaptive systems, non-linearity, time-lags, reliability and relevance , all in the context of selecting, monitoring and analyzing key environmental and ecological variables. Reliable techniques and experimental design and statistical rigor must be used. Sorting out the "signals" from the background "noise" in the system under study demands the very best application of current ecological theory and practice (see Levin 1999). To achieve this goal, it is necessary to ask clear questions and acquire reliable long-term (minimally, decadal) data sets using a wide range of indicators (NRC 1990, Spellerberg 1991, RSC 1995, amongst others).
What is the evidence of natural change occurring in the Bay of Fundy?
Natural change(s) are short or long-term fluctuations or oscillations in structure or function that usually occur in a dynamic ecological system and cannot be attributed, directly or indirectly, to human intervention. The demarcation line between natural and human-induced change(s) is not always easy to delineate (for example, see Sapp (1999) for coral reef ecology and Clarkson (1998) for methyl mercury toxicology). There are a number of indicators of natural change for the Bay of Fundy: climate and local weather patterns (warming and extreme events occurring more frequently, see Wartman below); coastal erosion and sedimentation (increasing in local areas, Milligan, pers. comm.); sea level rise (occurring throughout the Bay, Wartman below); sea surface temperatures (cooling?); marked shifts in population distribution and abundance of Northern Phalaropes, Lobipes lobatus , in the outer Bay, and their possible "disappearance" (Hicklin, pers. comm); a possibly wider distribution and longer feeding period of migrating shorebirds, such as Semipalmated Sandpipers, Calidris pusilla, on some of the mudflats of the upper Bay (CWS, unpubl. data). We collectively need to compile this list of natural changes, organized spatially and temporally with geographic information system (GIS) support, and confirm the signals through additional long-term field observation and analysis.
What is the evidence of change in the Bay attributed to human activities?
There are many examples of human-induced change(s) in and around the Bay of Fundy, some very old (the construction of dykelands) and some very recent (see Percy et al. 1997 for a description of 25 issues). Many of these changes are well documented in the literature; some are not, rather they are observational and anecdotal and in need of verification. Such change(s) includes: loss of critical habitat, e.g. a much diminished total area of salt marsh, spawning and feeding areas for fish such as salmon; construction of barriers on rivers, estuaries, shorelines, and their related effects (Wells 1999a, CCNB 1999); the wide-spread presence of trace contaminants, i.e. toxic substances and in some cases pollutants (Wells et al. 1997, Burgess, pers. comm., Tay, pers. comm.); imposex in marine snails attributed to organotins in harbours (Prouse, pers. comm.); increased numbers and types of industrial discharges, causing declines in water quality; occasional oil spills; increased numbers of shellfish closures due to high bacterial levels; increased Paralytic Shellfish Poison outbreaks (also naturally induced); diminished fisheries, e.g. salmon, alewives; and diminished wildlife, e.g. reduction in numbers of shorebirds and seaducks (Hicklin, pers. comm.), puffins, terns, others?) and northern right whales (see Mowat 1984 for documentation). One does not want to be polemic or "a false Cassandra or prophet of doom" (Sapp, 1999, p. 204). However, it appears that there has been and still is a concerted assault on the habitat, biodiversity and environmental quality of the Bay of Fundy, at different locations, since Europeans arrived and settled almost 400 years ago. Clearly, signals of deterioration or negative change linked to our activities abound. However, the recent evidence of significant human induced change needs to be sought, assembled and rigorously examined as a whole, in the manner being done for trace contaminants (Wells et al. 1997). False alarms are unacceptable and counterproductive to conserving and protecting coastal ecosystems. But if the single and collective signals indicate that significant change and indeed harm is occurring on an ecosystem-wide basis in the Bay, acting now would be judicious.
Can the methods of detecting and interpreting change(s) be improved?
The answer is yes. Methodologies are improving each year. Examples of how better methods can be attained are: employing new monitoring technology, e.g. biomarkers, sublethal assays and microscale ecotoxicology tests, in the case of trace toxic substances (Peakall 1992, Monette and Wells 1999, Wells et al. 1998; Wells 1999b); conducting power analyses on every technique employed to be certain of their ability to detect a signal; networking the techniques, e.g. satellite imagery plus GIS plus sampling and analysis, thereby establishing the capacity to monitor the whole system over the long term, at minimum decades; and above all, supporting the archival identification centres for marine species so that the marine biodiversity of the Bay is readily identified and well understood and losses and introductions (i.e. exotics) noted (Pilgrim et al. 1999; Pohle 1999).
What challenges face us in the quest to understand change in a complex marine ecosystem - the Bay of Fundy?
The challenges are many. As a society, we need to provide and increase long-term funding for marine ecological research and training so that a new cohort of expertise competently tackles the questions posed above. We need to think of novel ways of measuring change in the Bay of Fundy, e.g. utilizing new conservation and protection initiatives such as MPAs (Marine Protected Areas, under the new Oceans Act) for science and monitoring, and instituting broad monitoring initiatives under a comprehensive marine environmental quality framework (Chang, pers. comm.). We need new monitoring methods to detect subtle changes. Governments also need to become more innovative working with volunteer groups, to collect the data necessary to detect changes and respond accordingly. Facing these challenges, all oriented to understanding change in the Bay's ecosystem, will ensure a reliable information base upon which to manage the Bay of Fundy comprehensively and safeguard its environmental quality and health as the new millennium begins.
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